Does the Moore’s law still apply? Probably yes, probably not, probably such law never existed, probably we are only the result of some code. Probably, but wait…
We all know the Moore’s microchip law: the density of transistors on a microchip doubles every two years.
This is more or less the trend we have seen so far and what allows us to have much more computing power in our smartphone than a room-size pc of the ‘seventies. But probably (again) we are at an end.
The 2015 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors report predicts that we have time until 2021. Afterwords transistors will stop shrinking in size. Forever (?).
I’m usually skeptic, but let’s have a closer look at the matter.
In the previous report it was claimed that transistor would have continued shrinking at least until 2028. Well, this significant difference in future forecast after just one year leaves me even more suspicious…
The point is not that the Moore’s law is no more effective but that, if we intend the law how “the number of transistors doubles every two years”, it applies regardless form the microprocessor arrangement.
In general transistor redesigns and chip stacking (3D memory) will make memory smaller and faster. And this might be enough. Instead of keeping shrinking and shrinking transistor size, a vertical chip staking might be sufficient to increase the computing capacity in reduced dimensions.
It will be no longer economically desirable to continue to shrink the microprocessors dimensions after 2021. Chip manufacturers will boost density, via a proper disposition, i.e. by turning the transistor from a horizontal to a vertical geometry. Multiple chip layers, one on top of another, will be sufficient.
Let’s see what is foreseen in the next report, we have to do something waiting for 2021.
WU
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